Key to nowhere

In response to some great comments in my last post about the US and NZ elections…

Auntie Helen and Cullen made some highly unpopular but incredibly smart decisions by conserving cash in anticipation of lean times ahead. Despite being labeled as lefty socialists, they’ve acted as true fiscal conservatives, while so-called conservatives wanted to give tax hand outs to people that didn’t need them.

Meanwhile, they presided over one of the best periods of economic growth in NZ history. When I arrived in NZ in 2001 Kiwis welcomed me to the 3rd world, wondering why I moved from America to scrape by on the Kiwi-Peso. Helen and Cullen don’t necessarily deserve all the credit for the boom, nevertheless Kiwis did extraordinarily well during their administration. The vast majority of people who whinged about not getting tax cuts were simply being greedy and selfish.

An esteemed colleague of mine says we need to grow the pie, not just slice it up. Helen did both. I doubt John Key will do either. Like self-proclaimed fiscal conservatives in the US, they say one thing and do the complete opposite as beautifully portrayed in this cartoon and this brilliant NY Times interactive chart.

In his speech John Key begrudgingly managed to squeeze in a few obligatory comments about the rest of the country that didn’t vote for him. But he was completely snide in his manner. Ironically, I think that’s what so many people disliked about Helen and Cullen: their manner. Many people voted based on the personalities of the candidates, not their policies.

I don’t think that John Key is the worst person for the job. Brash and English would have been far worse. And it’s not like he’s as evil and devastating as Bush. However, I don’t trust Key. He has contradicted himself far too many times – in shamefully transparent maneuvers to secure votes, never as genuine epiphanies. He brings no new ideas to the table, every idea he has is either old thinking from the bygone century or stolen from Helen. He has no nuance, he see things as black or white, good or bad, and therefore responds with blunt instruments when surgical precision is required. To add insult to injury, he’s partnering with ACT, a party with a truly primeval worldview.

In a time when world leaders, particularly key allies like the US and Oz, were undermining the fundamental tenets of democracy and raiding their economies for the benefit of corporate profiteering Helen defiantly and vocally opposed these tyrants. She defined New Zealand as a bastion of independent spirit and thoughtful leadership in a world gone mad. A special place of enlightened people.

Now that these same allies have finally come to their senses and leapfrogged ahead with brilliant leadership, NZ has arbitrarily reverted to choosing a mediocre, unoriginal, uninspired leader who has no true convictions and no real direction.

It’s a damn shame.

Acceptance

On the one hand: immeasurable pride…

I’m still wrapping my head around Obama winning, even though I called it back in January. It’s been incredibly inspiring to see him make it happen. He is a master. He hit every note exactly right. There has not been a more inspiring candidate in my lifetime. I never thought there would ever be a politician as focused, smart and inspiring as Bobby Kennedy was. Even Obama’s family has the beauty and aura of the Kennedy’s. I’m loving and savoring every second of it. I still can’t believe it’s actually happened.

I highly recommend these two photo galleries of Obama: The big picture and this campaign photo journal.

It has changed my view of the ‘old country’. I swore that if John McCain won I wouldn’t go back to the US, even to visit. Now I’m actually looking forward to visiting. I haven’t been back since moving to NZ in 2001, so it’s going to be quite a trip when it happens.

On the other hand, total disgust…

On this end of the world we also had an election. It was the polar opposite to the US election. I predicted that Helen would squeak by, but even she seemed tired of Helen. She had no more fire in the belly.

So New Zealand elected an investment banker as Prime Minister. Wow, that’s really moving in the right direction. You know, because if there’s anyone you can trust to manage this economy it would be an investment banker, right?

John Key’s acceptance speech was sickening, especially compared to the vision and eloquence of Obama’s acceptance speech. I know New Zealand has issues with tall poppies but he was just a dickhead. All he could talk about was winning. He didn’t have anything to say about the country or about the challenges we’re facing.

Helen Clarke made me so proud to be Kiwi. She was deadly smart, passionate, with a holistic view of the country and the world.

John Key is the opposite. He has only one concern – money. And that blind focus on money is useless when it comes to leading a country. Joining forces with Act, a far right party of small minded Luddites, proves what a backwards and clueless turn this country has just taken.

The smartest thing John Key did was adopt every one of Helen’s policies during his campaign. His whole platform was “I’m the same as Helen, but prettier.” With Helen gone he’s going to be at a complete loss for ideas and way out of his depths. Which means things are about to go tits up in New Zealand.

One journalist wrote that New Zealand voted for change for change’s sake and that the voting public “just got bored”.

It’s sad, but painfully true. That’s been the attitude of so many people I’ve talked to.

It’s a strange twist for me to be so extraordinarily proud of the way America voted and so disgusted by the way New Zealand voted. Very strange feelings, indeed.

Election 2004 vs 2008

Four years ago I got in deep shit with my internet provider. My only way of keeping up with the 2004 election was downloading torrents of the Daily Show and my monthly bill went from $50 to $1400 (not that I paid those extortionist fees – let’s just say the provider settled out of court).

Jump ahead to the current election, four years later. Now I watch the Daily Show and the Colbert Report via the internet directly on their respective sites. I got to see the debates on YouTube and MyDebates.org. I get to see the SNL clips and other news clips on blogs like onegoodmove.org and CrooksAndLiars.

For some reason I thought that I would stay dispassionate about this election. My feeling is that whoever wins America is far too morally bankrupt and corrupt to change in any significant and meaningful way. Red or Blue, the differences are really not at all “fundamental” as Obama/Biden love to say.

They say that the election should be a giveaway to the Democrats. What they decline to factor in is that this year the candidate is a black guy with a terrorist-sounding name. That’s the major reason why he doesn’t have an insurmountable lead. That and the fact that most American’s have such warped values: elite is bad, thinking is dangerous, violence is good, science is mythology, mythology is truth.

If Obama does win, clearly it will be an important milestone in American history. It will offer the world a glimmer of hope that America might actually be willing to confront its demons and maybe even conquer them. If he loses, it really will be the downfall of the US. I’m pretty convinced that if he loses it would cause race riots, and rightfully so. If it did cause riots then the only hope is that it might spark a full scale revolution.

Win or lose, I’m so incredibly proud of Obama. He has been working his ass off, looking out for best the interests of the “average” American, standing up for his convictions with complete clarity, honesty and determination. Unlike any politician from the past 20 years*, he wants to be President to unite the world, to make it a more fair and decent place, not simply to be leader of the “most powerful nation on earth”. (* if you rule out Nader as a politician).

I can’t wait for November 4th, but if I really search my soul I probably don’t want it to end. I think that this election has been one of the most gripping, revealing and admittedly entertaining.

America, America

During the 2000 U.S. presidential election I joked that if George Bush were elected I’d leave the country. In 2001, we emigrated to New Zealand. When people ask me why I moved to New Zealand I only half jokingly explain that I’m a political refugee.

My engagement with U.S. politics is tending to diminish the longer I’m an expat. Especially after the last fiasco of an election, I’m observing things as an outsider.

Nevertheless, watching this election it’s occurred to me that in some ways 2008 is looking a bit like 1968. America is in the middle of an unconscionable war, meanwhile there are echoes of Bobby Kennedy in the air. Let’s hope that the parallels end there.

Apart from Obama, the leading candidates are the same old charlatans. Puppets. Pandering megalomaniacs, power whores whose only interest is getting their head on the pedestal. Hillary is perhaps the worst of them all.

That’s why I’m really glad that Lessig made this video, it is required viewing…

Crowning achievement

Visionary of the Year

If George can anoint himself “The Decider” then I can confidently take the title of “The Predictor”. I was just crowned (literally, I have the tiara to prove it) 2008 Visionary Of The Year by Unlimited Potential. Which is pretty impressive, considering it happened in the first month of 2008.

It was another fun event and my fellow predictors had plenty of prescient and witty insights. Hopefully UP will post all the predictions somewhere.

The following is my outlook on the year to come. It contains a fair dose of wishful thinking, but sometimes technology and events do sneak up on you quicker than you expect.

2007 Greatest hits and misses

DRM finally goes away
Hit. Woot!

Wellington weather will be shit
Miss. Woot!

2007 Report card

User generated video advertising
Good progress: LiveRail, BrightRoll, YuMe, Adap.tv, VideoEgg, Adotube, Google/YouTube

Enterprise SaaS
Good progress: Netsuite IPO, Force.com

Web OS
Good progress: Macbook Air, gOS, CloudBook

Mobile Media Centers
Not so much: iPhone + Apple TV

2008 Better mobile experiences

3G iPhone with GPS, still won’t be available in NZ

Mesh networks start catching on thanks to Wireless USB (WUSB)

Somebody will provide a standard wifi billing platform (think OpenID + Paypal)

Presence detection gets real, gets fun:
get pinged when social network in proximity,
“scan” a party, cafe, club, biz conference to see profiles,
mixing and mingling privately while standing in a crowded room

2008 Hyperlocal on the homefront

Oil nears $200 a barrel, travel increasingly becomes a luxury,
people start thinking and acting a lot more local

Biofuels start becoming more efficient, demand surges
Aqua Flow becomes a leading provider

Working and learning from home becomes more and more of a necessity, collaborative web applications thrive in response

Lending networks thrive, microloans help ease economic turbulence

Home bio scanners start to hit the market – letting people scan food, detect viruses and germs, capture and analyse medical data, send data to a remote expert for further analysis

2008 Geeks Robots rule the earth

Portions of Google Earth and Streetside become available as realtime video

Mashed on top of this “open surveilance” framework will be
massively multiplayer game experiences

Hardware widgets and software widgets will converge producing very hackable, very personalised, interoperable device components (Buglabs, ThingM, Chumby)

New software driven materials interactively, physically reshape on command

2008 will go down in history as the year the robot uprising started taking shape

2008 Politics

Obama wins by a landslide

Helen wins (barely)

Kerry resigns in disgrace over conflicts-of-interest scandal

Tom Beard becomes the new mayor!

Finally, in my acceptance speech I predicted that next year the panel will include a woman!

Cold War 2.0

Putin and the west start a new game of chicken. Make sure you study up on Cold War 1.0.

Commander in Chief of the World